- Rural, Trump-voting communities show strong and growing optimism about both the short- and long-term future of the U.S., the American Communities Project found.
- Urban areas and communities that voted for Harris report rising pessimism, though their shifts are smaller.
- Hispanics break from political/geographic trends: despite voting for Trump in 2024, they show the largest shift toward pessimism.
- Big optimism gains appear in farmlands, Native American communities, evangelical hubs, and rural America. Concerns like immigration, inflation, and climate change may drive pessimism in other groups.
Americans who voted for President Donald Trump or live in rural areas are most likely to be optimistic about the future of the U.S., while those who voted for Kamala Harris or live in cities say they have a more pessimistic outlook, according to a national survey.
The American Communities Project found that Hispanic communities, however, stand out as the only category that does not align itself with the political trends that other voters and geographical areas demonstrate. Hispanics voted for Trump by 10 percentage points in 2024, according to the report, but their views on America’s short and long-term future appear to have soured since he took office.
According to the report, the only community types in which most people voted for Harris — southern African American communities, big cities and their suburbs, and college towns — say they are not optimistic about the short-term future of the U.S. Hispanics join them in this opinion, experiencing a shift of four points toward pessimism between 2024 and 2025.
The report found that some areas of the country, such as low-population farmlands, Native American communities, evangelical hubs, and rural middle America, have experienced large double-digit shifts toward optimism for the short-term future since last year, with low-population farmlands increasing the most (19 percentage points). The shifts toward pessimism in the four categories that voted for Harris were smaller (a four point decrease in optimism among African American communities and suburbs, one point in college towns, and 10 points in cities).
The report hypothesized that Democrats’ shifts could be smaller because they were already “disheartened” after four years under former president Joe Biden or that Democrat communities are pessimistic about the future because of other concerns, like climate change.
Similar trends emerged when voters were asked about the long-term future of the U.S. The same groups say they are pessimistic and experienced small shifts away from optimism; the same groups as before say they are optimistic and generally experienced larger movements toward positivity. As they previously did, Hispanics say they have less hope for the future than they did in 2024, and the category represents the largest shift toward a negative outlook (8 points).
The report credits Trump’s approach to immigration with Hispanics’ negative views on the country’s future, but adds that further research will investigate whether other factors, such as inflation, could be affecting the category’s opinion.
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