A new analysis argues that President Donald Trump’s campaign to force Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power mirrors the failed 2019 push to oust him – but this time, Russia is far less able to help Maduro.
In his Nov. 3 piece for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), Steve Gutterman noted that Washington’s recent military buildup in the Caribbean has sparked speculation that the U.S. may again move against Maduro’s regime. As CatholicVote has reported, the Trump administration recently deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford near Venezuela and launched a series of deadly strikes on suspected narco-trafficking vessels.
Gutterman, editor of the Russia/Ukraine/Belarus Desk in RFE/RL’s Central Newsroom in Prague, drew parallels to 2019, when the Trump administration recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president and threw U.S. weight behind an uprising that ultimately fizzled. At the time, Russia offered Maduro some support and even acknowledged having personnel on the ground in Venezuela.
This time, Moscow’s options to aid Maduro are narrower, Gutterman argued, citing political analysts.
“Today, Russia’s financial and military resources are more stretched than they were in 2019,” Gutterman wrote. “That was three years before Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, committing the vast majority of the country’s military personnel and assets to a costly war with no end in sight and triggering waves of Western economic sanctions.”
He quoted Berlin-based analyst Alexandra Sitenko, who said that Russia’s war in Ukraine “effectively rules out the deployment of Russian troops to Venezuela in the event of a U.S. intervention.” Sitenko said Moscow could still offer “limited support,” such as weapons, air defense systems, or intelligence assistance.
Meanwhile, during a Nov. 2 interview with CBS News’ “60 Minutes,” Trump defended U.S. military strikes in the Caribbean and said he believes Maduro’s days as president are numbered.
But when host Norah O’Donnell asked Trump whether the U.S. would go to war with Venezuela, he said, “I don’t think so, but they’ve been treating us very badly.”
According to an Oct. 31 Washington Post report, Maduro has sought military aid from Iran, China, and Russia — including jet repairs, radars, and possibly missiles. Gutterman noted that while it’s unclear if the Kremlin received the request, a Russian Il-76 transport plane arrived in Caracas, Venezuela, in late October.
On Nov. 1, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Moscow condemns “the use of excessive military force in carrying out actions in anti-drug operations” and “confirms our firm support for the Venezuelan leadership in defending its national sovereignty,” Gutterman reported.
Despite apparent Russian support for Maduro, Gutterman suggested the alliance remains limited and that Russian President Vladimir Putin may even welcome renewed U.S. focus on Venezuela.
“Moscow may see the growing US pressure on Venezuela as a development that draws Washington’s attention away from Ukraine, lessening the chances of additional pressure on Russia to halt the invasion,” Gutterman wrote. “Putin’s Kremlin might even see a silver lining in Maduro’s departure if the United States were to force him from power.”
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