A progressive analyst is downplaying the stakes of next week’s state elections, arguing that even if Democrats sweep closely watched races in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia, the results will mean little for the party’s future direction.
In an Oct. 27 New Republic analysis, editor Michael Tomasky argued that even if all three leading Democrats — New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, Virginia gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger, and New Jersey gubernatorial nominee Mikie Sherrill — win, their races carry limited national significance.
“If all three win, what will it mean for the Democratic Party internally? Progressives will tout a Mamdani win as proof that the party needs to move left,” Tomasky wrote. “Centrists will say wins by Spanberger and Sherrill demonstrate that the party must tack to the center.”
He warned that if Democrats continue their habit of turning races into ideological litmus tests, they will “prove once again” they would rather fight each other than take on “Trump and the Republicans and the GOP’s big donors the way they ought to be doing.”
The three contests are being closely watched ahead of the 2026 midterms. Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist, is expected to win in New York City despite opposition from major Democratic donors such as Mike Bloomberg. Spanberger currently leads Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia, while Sherrill holds a narrow edge over Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey, according to polling data.
Even so, Tomasky conceded that none of these races signals much about Democrats’ national fortunes.
“[T]here is no single formula for political victory here in these United States,” he wrote. “It’s a big country, and different candidates in different places have to try different combinations of things to address voters’ concerns, both national and parochial.”
While praising Mamdani’s focus on affordability, Tomasky argued that New York City politics “hasn’t been important to national politics in a very long time,” saying its trends rarely take root nationwide.
Victories by Spanberger and Sherrill, he continued, would not necessarily signal anything broader for Democrats. He described Spanberger’s Republican opponent, Earle-Sears, as a “crazed extremist who supports a six-week abortion ban” and Sherrill’s rival, Ciattarelli, is “well out there in MAGA land.”
Tomasky faulted both the progressive and centrist factions of his party for inflating minor ideological rifts — a dynamic he likened to Sigmund Freud’s “narcissism of small differences,” in which people magnify trivial disagreements and come to resent each other intensely.
He concluded that the party’s internal feuds have become and will continue to be self-defeating.
“I’ve been around these people, on both sides of this argument, for a long time,” he said. “And I can tell you: Some of them get more animated talking about the Democratic faction with which they disagree than they do about Trump. That has to stop.”
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