The sharp rise in “transgender” identification among young people over the past decade may have more to do with social contagion than self-expression, according to a new Wall Street Journal analysis.
In an Oct. 29 opinion piece, biologist and writer Colin Wright argued that the surge in “transgender” identification — particularly among clusters of girls with no prior history of gender dysphoria — mirrors other well-documented social contagion patterns.
The concept was introduced by researcher Lisa Littman, who coined the term “rapid-onset gender dysphoria” in a 2018 peer-reviewed paper to describe the emerging cohort of “transgender” identification among peer groups, Wright said.
“The term isn’t an insult; it’s a well-established sociological concept used to describe how trends such as eating disorders and even suicide clusters can spread,” he noted.
Wright, who says his own academic career at Penn State was derailed in 2020 after he publicly discussed the social contagion theory, said suggesting social causes for “transgender” identification defies the dominant left-wing claim that “gender identity” is inherent.
“Suggesting that social factors might cause or contribute to transgender identification violated fashionable left-wing dogma: that ‘gender identity’ is an innate and immutable trait, and that some people are born with one that conflicts with their sex,” Wright wrote, arguing that the belief “underpins both medical practice and legal strategy.”
He said the prevailing counterargument to the social contagion theory is that the sharp rise in “transgender” identification reflects greater social freedom: People now feel more comfortable expressing themselves. But recent surveys appear to complicate that narrative, Wright argued.
Citing political scientist Eric Kaufmann, Wright noted that the share of U.S. college students identifying as “transgender” fell by 50% between 2023 and 2025. Psychologist Jean Twenge’s review of YouGov’s annual Cooperative Election Study showed a nearly 50% drop among 18- to 22-year-olds from 2022 to 2024. “The peak of trans identification is in the past,” Twenge concluded in a Substack post.
Wright pointed to new data from the Society for Evidence-Based Gender Medicine that appeared to show different results. Using the National College Health Assessment, the group found that “transgender” and “nonbinary” identification among college students reached a record high — between 4.7% and 6.7% — though the numbers may now be leveling off. Wright argued the data still support the contagion model, since most of the increase came from students identifying as “nonbinary,” a category rooted in culture rather than biology.
“These are social identities, not biological ones,” Wright wrote. “Unlike left- or right-handedness, which describe objectively measurable traits, ‘nonbinary’ identities have no anatomical or physiological referent. They are conceptual, political, and responsive to cultural trends — hallmarks of social contagion.”
Wright concluded that the more than 20-fold increase in Americans identifying as “transgender” since 2010 cannot be attributed solely to biology or the idea that “gender identity” is innate.
“The surge in transgender identification in recent years wasn’t the revelation of a hidden biological truth,” he wrote. “It was a social phenomenon shaped by imitation, ideology and institutional reinforcement.”
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